2060 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2060, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have declined significantly compared to previous decades, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI, with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa still experiencing youthful populations and high fertility rates, though these rates will likely be lower than in the early 21st century. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, are expected to see negative or near-zero RNI due to persistent low fertility and aging populations, leading to natural population decline unless offset by immigration. South Asia and parts of the Middle East will have moderate RNI, with countries like India and Pakistan showing slowing but still positive natural increase, while Latin America’s RNI will continue to fall as fertility rates approach replacement level. The United States, Canada, and Australia are likely to have low or slightly positive RNI, relying increasingly on immigration for population growth. Thus, by 2060, the world’s population growth will be highly uneven, with Africa driving most of the natural increase, while many developed and some emerging economies face natural population decline.

RankCountryRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
1Benin2.43941,554,035
2Niger2.38980,163,916
3Congo Kinshasa2.226303,887,875
4Guinea-Bissau2.1715,008,087
5Angola2.161103,836,310
6Guinea2.15934,612,833
7Mozambique2.01378,055,625
8Uganda1.938117,847,348
9Liberia1.92112,791,170
10Chad1.83545,487,595
11Cameroon1.78669,324,196
12Nigeria1.784515,386,289
13Burundi1.76830,750,126
14Tanzania1.685149,012,254
15Mali1.67149,468,544
16Congo Brazzaville1.6612,153,679
17South Sudan1.64728,075,939
18Zambia1.58745,770,141
19Togo1.58318,041,362
20Zimbabwe1.54428,588,118
21Somalia1.50526,587,043
22Sudan1.496103,858,870
23Ethiopia1.266224,813,883
24Central African Republic1.2099,315,795
25Afghanistan1.20671,937,932
26Ghana1.20563,316,279
27Gabon1.1814,724,582
28Senegal1.13234,668,560
29Burkina Faso1.11941,722,080
30.5Equatorial Guinea1.0743,412,050
30.5Timor-Leste1.0742,391,904
32Gaza Strip1.0673,354,289
33Côte d'Ivoire1.03752,970,197
34Kenya1.032100,157,642
35Mauritania1.037,216,189
36Papua New Guinea1.02617,909,757
37Madagascar1.01650,795,335
38Malawi1.00837,972,560
39Sierra Leone0.9916,157,181
40Eritrea0.9539,794,168
41Kuwait0.9414,110,128
42The Gambia0.9344,255,749
43Namibia0.9154,599,148
44Pakistan0.911403,522,132
45Iraq0.89169,817,126
46West Bank0.8844,566,442
47Jordan0.85817,136,875
48Rwanda0.80520,728,494
49Belize0.794643,738
50Oman0.7775,896,269
51Sao Tome and Principe0.761335,227
52United Arab Emirates0.7513,253,704
53Qatar0.7452,642,169
54Syria0.73936,161,204
55Tuvalu0.72813,735
56Solomon Islands0.7191,084,942
57Yemen0.71449,677,410
58Libya0.69810,327,324
59Vanuatu0.697465,167
60Philippines0.67169,390,448
61Israel0.66113,695,173
62Guatemala0.65726,138,559
63Egypt0.649162,616,346
64Lesotho0.6332,725,744
65Federated States of Micronesia0.61365,366
66Comoros0.5621,233,753
67Saint Martin0.55235,689
68Marshall Islands0.544107,001
69Djibouti0.531,484,856
70Tajikistan0.5112,769,080
71Haiti0.50115,207,985
72Kiribati0.498144,299
73.5Brunei0.485694,707
73.5Eswatini0.4851,342,234
75.5Nauru0.48411,995
75.5Samoa0.484261,007
77Kyrgyzstan0.4667,210,711
78Panama0.4336,127,599
79Bahrain0.3951,912,262
80Guam0.387150,053
81Saudi Arabia0.37349,870,218
82Botswana0.3413,410,656
83Dominican Republic0.33312,868,429
84Honduras0.31712,325,291
85Laos0.3110,322,540
86Algeria0.29258,348,042
87Cambodia0.26820,581,022
88Jamaica0.2563,061,362
89Argentina0.25156,794,892
90Bangladesh0.242196,569,652
91Cabo Verde0.237769,753
92Guyana0.235836,501
93Tonga0.2289,852
94Turkmenistan0.2186,757,599
95Ecuador0.21622,027,710
96Faroe Islands0.2159,793
97Morocco0.19743,814,062
98Nepal0.18835,974,118
99Venezuela0.18637,183,691
100Peru0.18538,600,576
101Australia0.16935,510,244
102.5Anguilla0.16630,154
102.5South Africa0.16670,289,452
104Antigua and Barbuda0.165129,488
105Paraguay0.1559,191,872
106Luxembourg0.149957,074
107Turks and Caicos Islands0.13993,448
108Malaysia0.13542,716,266
109Bolivia0.12514,863,568
110United States0.121404,483,055
111.5Kazakhstan0.10622,871,143
111.5Mexico0.106155,420,240
113.5Fiji0.0961,024,276
113.5New Caledonia0.096394,571
115Bhutan0.0891,070,911
116British Virgin Islands0.08359,741
117Iceland0.072428,054
118Suriname0.071812,130
119India0.0661,646,862,071
120Cayman Islands0.057102,123
121The Bahamas0.054414,047
122Indonesia0.043320,660,487
123Maldives0.04458,743
124Northern Mariana Islands0.03842,423
125Nicaragua0.0257,285,886
126Burma0.02464,800,276
127.5Ireland0.0236,736,100
127.5Costa Rica0.0236,300,532
129Kosovo0.022,267,582
130Sri Lanka0.00925,562,860
131.5New Zealand0.0076,165,734
131.5Gibraltar0.00728,229
133Colombia0.00150,096,784
134.5El Salvador-0.0076,252,245
134.5Norway-0.0076,757,183
136Mongolia-0.0153,715,669
137.5Uzbekistan-0.01735,946,084
137.5Vietnam-0.017121,833,805
139Switzerland-0.02910,202,782
140Jersey-0.035110,999
141Sweden-0.0512,102,401
142Aruba-0.06162,914
143Greenland-0.06651,455
144Curaçao-0.072150,313
145Denmark-0.0736,534,099
146United Kingdom-0.07475,593,335
147Uruguay-0.0843,551,551
148Belgium-0.08513,351,912
149Iran-0.09101,418,157
150Netherlands-0.09218,538,888
151Brazil-0.114237,259,854
152North Korea-0.14126,939,552
153.5Canada-0.15445,399,512
153.5Chile-0.15420,016,383
155Azerbaijan-0.15511,277,764
156Turkey-0.15689,098,451
157Grenada-0.157114,879
158French Polynesia-0.161327,966
159France-0.17571,060,969
160American Samoa-0.17627,753
161Tunisia-0.17712,694,922
162.5Liechtenstein-0.22745,836
162.5Finland-0.2275,581,304
164Sint Maarten-0.2555,470
165Guernsey-0.25568,190
166Wallis and Futuna-0.28715,699
167Lebanon-0.2945,600,620
168Singapore-0.2967,063,348
169Palau-0.30521,987
170Austria-0.3069,431,988
171Georgia-0.324,688,132
172Bermuda-0.33169,184
173Malta-0.366493,457
174Albania-0.3732,731,175
175Saint Vincent and the Grenadines-0.38592,232
176Isle of Man-0.39894,125
177Barbados-0.427285,866
178.5North Macedonia-0.4422,008,015
178.5Saint Barthelemy-0.4426,571
180Cyprus-0.461,380,462
181Czechia-0.47310,288,850
182Germany-0.47677,551,693
183Trinidad and Tobago-0.4831,295,866
184Italy-0.49760,338,268
185.5Seychelles-0.49897,216
185.5San Marino-0.49834,963
187Saint Kitts and Nevis-0.51655,756
188Macau-0.519689,170
189Montenegro-0.542456,072
190Cook Islands-0.555,092
191Russia-0.569126,898,188
192Cuba-0.5859,499,574
193Dominica-0.59261,488
194Slovenia-0.5981,905,804
195.5Thailand-0.63562,828,177
195.5Belarus-0.6358,032,615
197Mauritius-0.6391,162,131
198Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha-0.6437,146
199Croatia-0.6443,411,254
200.5Portugal-0.6479,342,623
200.5Hungary-0.6478,228,207
202Ukraine-0.6535,041,296
203Romania-0.65614,622,118
204Slovakia-0.6614,701,255
205U.S. Virgin Islands-0.66573,666
206China-0.6671,286,294,186
207Serbia-0.685,335,810
208Greece-0.6889,016,470
209Poland-0.69831,294,094
210Spain-0.745,055,029
211Montserrat-0.7245,245
212Lithuania-0.7431,893,639
213Bulgaria-0.7565,332,226
214Moldova-0.7732,009,915
215Puerto Rico-0.8071,957,948
216Japan-0.81299,081,689
217Armenia-0.8152,284,720
218Hong Kong-0.8286,500,795
219Bosnia and Herzegovina-0.853,037,135
220Estonia-0.859883,523
221Latvia-0.9361,193,651
222Taiwan-0.93720,646,303
223South Korea-1.00446,946,992
224Andorra-1.07370,878
225Monaco-1.29330,928
226Saint Pierre and Miquelon-1.3293,237
227Saint Lucia-1.353158,637

Data from US Census International Database