2060 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2060, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have declined significantly compared to previous decades, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI, with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa still experiencing youthful populations and high fertility rates, though these rates will likely be lower than in the early 21st century. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, are expected to see negative or near-zero RNI due to persistent low fertility and aging populations, leading to natural population decline unless offset by immigration. South Asia and parts of the Middle East will have moderate RNI, with countries like India and Pakistan showing slowing but still positive natural increase, while Latin America’s RNI will continue to fall as fertility rates approach replacement level. The United States, Canada, and Australia are likely to have low or slightly positive RNI, relying increasingly on immigration for population growth. Thus, by 2060, the world’s population growth will be highly uneven, with Africa driving most of the natural increase, while many developed and some emerging economies face natural population decline.

Data from US Census International Database