Serbia has experienced a negative rate of natural increase (RNI) in recent years, meaning that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, leading to a declining population without considering migration. As of the early 2020s, Serbia’s RNI is approximately -5 per 1,000 population, reflecting low birth rates and an aging population. This trend is similar to several neighboring countries in the Western Balkans, such as Bulgaria and Croatia, which also have negative RNI due to similar demographic challenges. In contrast, some of Serbia’s neighbors, like Albania and North Macedonia, have slightly higher (though still low or near zero) RNIs, with Albania sometimes showing a marginally positive RNI due to higher fertility rates among its population. Overall, Serbia’s demographic situation is emblematic of broader trends in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, where low fertility and high emigration contribute to natural population decline.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 0.26 | 7,719,700 |
| 1990 | 0.063 | 7,786,398 |
| 1995 | -0.1 | 7,691,301 |
| 2000 | -0.398 | 7,604,338 |
| 2005 | -0.466 | 7,424,559 |
| 2010 | -0.483 | 7,233,391 |
| 2015 | -0.539 | 7,052,916 |
| 2020 | -0.804 | 6,856,660 |
| 2024 | -0.608 | 6,652,212 |
| 2025 | -0.594 | 6,612,318 |
| 2026 | -0.583 | 6,573,488 |
| 2030 | -0.578 | 6,423,523 |
| 2035 | -0.593 | 6,238,163 |
| 2040 | -0.606 | 6,052,909 |
| 2045 | -0.614 | 5,870,991 |
| 2050 | -0.622 | 5,692,788 |
| 2055 | -0.646 | 5,515,498 |
| 2060 | -0.68 | 5,335,810 |
| 2065 | -0.711 | 5,153,272 |
| 2070 | -0.729 | 4,970,668 |
| 2075 | -0.73 | 4,792,408 |
| 2080 | -0.714 | 4,622,163 |
| 2085 | -0.697 | 4,461,757 |
| 2090 | -0.679 | 4,310,759 |
| 2095 | -0.668 | 4,167,998 |
| 2100 | -0.659 | 4,032,013 |
Data from US Census International Database