The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Nepal, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, has been gradually declining over recent decades but remains higher than some of its neighboring countries. As of the early 2020s, Nepal’s RNI is approximately 1.3% per year, reflecting a moderate population growth driven by a decreasing but still relatively high birth rate and a declining death rate. In comparison, India’s RNI is slightly lower at around 0.8%, while China’s RNI is near zero or even negative, indicating a stagnating or shrinking population due to very low birth rates. Bangladesh, another neighbor, has an RNI close to Nepal’s, at about 1.1%. These differences highlight that while Nepal’s population is still growing at a moderate pace, it is experiencing a demographic transition similar to its neighbors, albeit at a slightly slower rate than India and China, but faster than more developed countries in the region.
Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
---|---|---|
1975 | 2.162 | 13,145,618 |
1980 | 2.312 | 14,612,664 |
1985 | 2.473 | 16,438,782 |
1990 | 2.613 | 18,649,113 |
1995 | 2.666 | 21,358,915 |
2000 | 2.329 | 23,486,982 |
2005 | 1.987 | 25,254,661 |
2010 | 1.753 | 26,662,624 |
2015 | 1.419 | 28,645,436 |
2020 | 1.243 | 30,175,326 |
2024 | 1.137 | 31,122,387 |
2025 | 1.104 | 31,334,402 |
2026 | 1.082 | 31,540,295 |
2030 | 0.963 | 32,340,917 |
2035 | 0.804 | 33,250,249 |
2040 | 0.653 | 34,035,993 |
2045 | 0.517 | 34,703,481 |
2050 | 0.403 | 35,274,683 |
2055 | 0.297 | 35,716,902 |
2060 | 0.188 | 35,974,118 |
2065 | 0.067 | 36,026,586 |
2070 | -0.066 | 35,849,817 |
2075 | -0.207 | 35,427,921 |
2080 | -0.343 | 34,764,368 |
2085 | -0.46 | 33,892,632 |
2090 | -0.541 | 32,874,359 |
2095 | -0.586 | 31,781,026 |
2100 | -0.606 | 30,669,276 |
Data from US Census International Database