Nepal Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Nepal, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, has been gradually declining over recent decades but remains higher than some of its neighboring countries. As of the early 2020s, Nepal’s RNI is approximately 1.3% per year, reflecting a moderate population growth driven by a decreasing but still relatively high birth rate and a declining death rate. In comparison, India’s RNI is slightly lower at around 0.8%, while China’s RNI is near zero or even negative, indicating a stagnating or shrinking population due to very low birth rates. Bangladesh, another neighbor, has an RNI close to Nepal’s, at about 1.1%. These differences highlight that while Nepal’s population is still growing at a moderate pace, it is experiencing a demographic transition similar to its neighbors, albeit at a slightly slower rate than India and China, but faster than more developed countries in the region.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19752.16213,145,618
19802.31214,612,664
19852.47316,438,782
19902.61318,649,113
19952.66621,358,915
20002.32923,486,982
20051.98725,254,661
20101.75326,662,624
20151.41928,645,436
20201.24330,175,326
20241.13731,122,387
20251.10431,334,402
20261.08231,540,295
20300.96332,340,917
20350.80433,250,249
20400.65334,035,993
20450.51734,703,481
20500.40335,274,683
20550.29735,716,902
20600.18835,974,118
20650.06736,026,586
2070-0.06635,849,817
2075-0.20735,427,921
2080-0.34334,764,368
2085-0.4633,892,632
2090-0.54132,874,359
2095-0.58631,781,026
2100-0.60630,669,276

Data from US Census International Database