Moldova has a notably low and negative rate of natural increase (RNI), meaning that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, resulting in a shrinking population. In recent years, Moldova’s RNI has hovered around -0.8% per year, reflecting both low birth rates and relatively high death rates. This demographic trend is similar to neighboring Ukraine, which also experiences a negative RNI due to similar factors such as emigration, aging population, and low fertility rates. In contrast, Romania, while also facing demographic challenges, has a slightly less negative RNI, though it is still below zero. To the southwest, Romania’s RNI is about -0.4%, indicating a slower rate of natural decrease compared to Moldova. Meanwhile, Moldova’s other neighbor, Romania, and Ukraine, all share the broader Eastern European trend of population decline, but Moldova’s rate is among the most severe in the region, exacerbated by significant emigration and limited economic opportunities.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.793 | 4,374,000 |
| 1995 | 0.079 | 4,355,074 |
| 2000 | -0.12 | 4,180,215 |
| 2005 | -0.206 | 3,948,260 |
| 2010 | -0.035 | 3,731,159 |
| 2015 | -0.069 | 3,542,172 |
| 2020 | -0.174 | 3,360,212 |
| 2024 | -0.283 | 3,213,504 |
| 2025 | -0.305 | 3,176,315 |
| 2026 | -0.327 | 3,139,029 |
| 2030 | -0.405 | 2,989,022 |
| 2035 | -0.475 | 2,802,592 |
| 2040 | -0.537 | 2,621,878 |
| 2045 | -0.594 | 2,450,198 |
| 2050 | -0.655 | 2,287,079 |
| 2055 | -0.721 | 2,138,798 |
| 2060 | -0.773 | 2,009,915 |
| 2065 | -0.811 | 1,898,032 |
| 2070 | -0.826 | 1,802,486 |
| 2075 | -0.8 | 1,724,220 |
| 2080 | -0.732 | 1,659,264 |
| 2085 | -0.64 | 1,603,288 |
| 2090 | -0.55 | 1,556,372 |
| 2095 | -0.493 | 1,516,620 |
| 2100 | -0.478 | 1,480,520 |
Data from US Census International Database