Japan’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rate and death rate—has been negative for over a decade, reflecting a population that is shrinking due to low fertility rates and an aging society. As of the early 2020s, Japan’s RNI is around -0.3% per year, one of the lowest in the world. In contrast, neighboring countries show varied trends: South Korea also has a negative RNI, with birth rates even lower than Japan’s, signaling a similar demographic challenge. Meanwhile, China’s RNI has recently approached zero, with its population growth stalling due to declining births and an aging population. On the other hand, countries like the Philippines and Vietnam maintain positive RNIs, driven by higher fertility rates and younger populations, resulting in continued population growth. Thus, while East Asia’s developed economies face shrinking populations, Southeast Asian neighbors continue to experience natural population increases.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.333 | 123,537,399 |
| 1995 | 0.253 | 125,327,055 |
| 2000 | 0.198 | 126,771,901 |
| 2005 | 0.04 | 127,705,189 |
| 2010 | -0.056 | 127,645,939 |
| 2015 | -0.209 | 126,656,703 |
| 2020 | -0.423 | 125,135,727 |
| 2024 | -0.502 | 123,201,945 |
| 2025 | -0.52 | 122,664,433 |
| 2026 | -0.536 | 122,108,827 |
| 2030 | -0.591 | 119,732,022 |
| 2035 | -0.645 | 116,494,761 |
| 2040 | -0.681 | 113,086,546 |
| 2045 | -0.703 | 109,615,226 |
| 2050 | -0.719 | 106,156,887 |
| 2055 | -0.752 | 102,683,541 |
| 2060 | -0.812 | 99,081,689 |
| 2065 | -0.87 | 95,307,355 |
| 2070 | -0.895 | 91,473,753 |
| 2075 | -0.877 | 87,769,171 |
| 2080 | -0.836 | 84,345,598 |
| 2085 | -0.806 | 81,194,906 |
| 2090 | -0.78 | 78,262,276 |
| 2095 | -0.764 | 75,504,519 |
| 2100 | -0.75 | 72,883,584 |
Data from US Census International Database