Syria Rate of Natural Increase

Syria’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has fluctuated significantly in recent years, largely due to the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis. As of the early 2020s, Syria’s RNI is estimated to be around 1.4% per year, which is lower than pre-war levels but still positive, reflecting a higher birth rate than death rate despite elevated mortality and emigration. In contrast, neighboring countries like Lebanon and Turkey have much lower RNIs, with Lebanon experiencing near-zero or even negative natural increase due to low birth rates and emigration, while Turkey’s RNI hovers around 1.1%. Jordan, on the other hand, maintains a slightly higher RNI than Syria, at approximately 1.7%, thanks to a relatively young population and higher fertility rates. Thus, while Syria’s RNI is still positive, it is lower than that of Jordan but higher than Lebanon’s and slightly above Turkey’s, highlighting the demographic impact of conflict and differing social and economic conditions in the region.

Data from US Census International Database