Djibouti Rate of Natural Increase

Djibouti’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—is moderate compared to its neighbors in the Horn of Africa. As of recent estimates, Djibouti’s RNI is around 1.5% per year, reflecting a combination of relatively high birth rates and declining death rates, but lower than the regional average. In contrast, Ethiopia and Somalia both exhibit higher RNIs, typically above 2.5%, driven by higher fertility rates and younger populations. Eritrea’s RNI is similar to Djibouti’s, though slightly higher, while countries like Yemen (across the Red Sea) have historically had even higher rates, though recent conflict has affected demographic trends. Djibouti’s lower RNI can be attributed to its smaller population, greater urbanization, and better access to healthcare compared to some of its neighbors, leading to lower fertility and mortality rates. Overall, while population growth in Djibouti is steady, it is outpaced by the rapid natural increases seen in Ethiopia and Somalia.

Data from US Census International Database