Canada’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been notably low in recent years, hovering near zero or even slightly negative. This reflects an aging population and persistently low fertility rates, which are below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. In contrast, the United States, Canada’s southern neighbor, also experiences a low RNI, but it remains marginally higher than Canada’s due to a slightly higher birth rate and a younger population overall. To the north, Canada shares a border with Greenland (an autonomous territory of Denmark), where the RNI has historically been higher due to a younger demographic and higher fertility rates, though it too is gradually declining. Overall, while all three regions face challenges of aging populations and low birth rates, Canada’s natural population growth is among the slowest, making immigration the primary driver of its population growth compared to its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.563 | 29,690,529 |
| 2000 | 0.353 | 31,099,560 |
| 2005 | 0.346 | 32,390,571 |
| 2010 | 0.389 | 34,200,883 |
| 2015 | 0.327 | 36,069,803 |
| 2020 | 0.22 | 37,649,603 |
| 2024 | 0.181 | 38,794,813 |
| 2025 | 0.166 | 39,066,049 |
| 2026 | 0.15 | 39,330,711 |
| 2030 | 0.081 | 40,325,886 |
| 2035 | 0.002 | 41,420,185 |
| 2040 | -0.053 | 42,378,217 |
| 2045 | -0.096 | 43,230,196 |
| 2050 | -0.123 | 44,002,894 |
| 2055 | -0.142 | 44,720,424 |
| 2060 | -0.154 | 45,399,512 |
| 2065 | -0.166 | 46,048,085 |
| 2070 | -0.18 | 46,661,506 |
| 2075 | -0.198 | 47,231,711 |
| 2080 | -0.217 | 47,751,831 |
| 2085 | -0.229 | 48,228,727 |
| 2090 | -0.233 | 48,680,239 |
| 2095 | -0.232 | 49,123,767 |
| 2100 | -0.228 | 49,570,842 |
Data from US Census International Database