Italy’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been negative in recent years, reflecting a demographic trend of more deaths than births. As of the early 2020s, Italy’s RNI stands at around -3 to -4 per 1,000 population per year, indicating a shrinking native population. This trend is similar to neighboring countries like Greece and Spain, which also experience negative or near-zero RNI due to low fertility rates and aging populations. In contrast, France and Switzerland have slightly higher RNIs, with France in particular maintaining a near-zero or marginally positive RNI thanks to higher birth rates and supportive family policies. Austria’s RNI is also close to zero but typically not as negative as Italy’s. Overall, Italy’s demographic decline is among the most pronounced in Western Europe, highlighting the country’s acute challenges with population aging and low fertility compared to some of its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | -0.05 | 57,294,513 |
| 2000 | -0.021 | 57,784,371 |
| 2005 | -0.025 | 59,037,807 |
| 2010 | -0.042 | 60,786,485 |
| 2015 | -0.263 | 61,512,589 |
| 2020 | -0.53 | 61,337,765 |
| 2024 | -0.417 | 60,964,931 |
| 2025 | -0.407 | 60,924,851 |
| 2026 | -0.398 | 60,896,213 |
| 2030 | -0.36 | 60,840,335 |
| 2035 | -0.322 | 60,887,498 |
| 2040 | -0.312 | 61,012,899 |
| 2045 | -0.345 | 61,102,823 |
| 2050 | -0.406 | 61,036,680 |
| 2055 | -0.482 | 60,754,503 |
| 2060 | -0.497 | 60,338,268 |
| 2065 | -0.458 | 59,970,377 |
| 2070 | -0.384 | 59,785,383 |
| 2075 | -0.307 | 59,835,755 |
| 2080 | -0.25 | 60,089,468 |
| 2085 | -0.222 | 60,465,674 |
| 2090 | -0.206 | 60,898,766 |
| 2095 | -0.186 | 61,378,805 |
| 2100 | -0.16 | 61,926,990 |
Data from US Census International Database