The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Nicaragua, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, remains relatively high compared to many countries in the region, though it has been gradually declining in recent years. As of the early 2020s, Nicaragua's RNI is estimated at around 1.3% per year, reflecting a moderately high birth rate and a declining death rate. When compared to its neighbors, Nicaragua's RNI is somewhat higher than that of Costa Rica, which has seen a significant demographic transition and now has an RNI of less than 1%. In contrast, Honduras and El Salvador have RNIs similar to or slightly lower than Nicaragua, with Honduras typically showing a marginally higher rate and El Salvador a lower one due to lower birth rates and higher emigration. Overall, while Nicaragua's population continues to grow at a steady pace, the trend across Central America is toward slowing natural increase as fertility rates decline and life expectancy improves.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 3.41 | 2,394,739 |
| 1980 | 3.428 | 2,803,030 |
| 1985 | 3.205 | 3,180,138 |
| 1990 | 3.177 | 3,643,561 |
| 1995 | 2.874 | 4,395,504 |
| 2000 | 2.282 | 4,858,962 |
| 2005 | 1.813 | 5,259,795 |
| 2010 | 1.467 | 5,595,169 |
| 2015 | 1.284 | 5,895,223 |
| 2020 | 1.173 | 6,186,056 |
| 2024 | 1.086 | 6,417,180 |
| 2025 | 1.057 | 6,474,148 |
| 2026 | 1.029 | 6,530,197 |
| 2030 | 0.893 | 6,738,689 |
| 2035 | 0.706 | 6,953,360 |
| 2040 | 0.544 | 7,113,201 |
| 2045 | 0.401 | 7,222,622 |
| 2050 | 0.282 | 7,287,372 |
| 2055 | 0.163 | 7,310,009 |
| 2060 | 0.025 | 7,285,886 |
| 2065 | -0.127 | 7,208,866 |
| 2070 | -0.282 | 7,076,721 |
| 2075 | -0.431 | 6,892,715 |
| 2080 | -0.561 | 6,664,882 |
| 2085 | -0.664 | 6,404,887 |
| 2090 | -0.736 | 6,125,797 |
| 2095 | -0.779 | 5,839,510 |
| 2100 | -0.802 | 5,555,301 |
Data from US Census International Database