Turkey’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been gradually declining over recent decades, reflecting broader demographic transitions. As of the early 2020s, Turkey’s RNI is estimated at around 0.9% per year, indicating moderate population growth. This rate is higher than that of neighboring Greece and Bulgaria, both of which have negative RNIs due to low birth rates and aging populations, resulting in natural population decline. In contrast, Turkey’s RNI is lower than that of some of its southeastern neighbors, such as Syria and Iraq, where higher birth rates contribute to more rapid natural population growth, despite the impact of conflict and instability. Overall, Turkey’s RNI positions it between the slower-growing, aging populations of Europe and the faster-growing, younger populations of the Middle East.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 2.565 | 45,047,973 |
| 1985 | 2.186 | 50,988,566 |
| 1990 | 1.89 | 56,544,219 |
| 1995 | 1.669 | 61,297,181 |
| 2000 | 1.551 | 65,978,547 |
| 2005 | 1.421 | 70,460,823 |
| 2010 | 1.238 | 74,647,083 |
| 2015 | 1.049 | 79,368,631 |
| 2020 | 0.883 | 82,009,212 |
| 2024 | 0.766 | 84,119,531 |
| 2025 | 0.737 | 84,625,585 |
| 2026 | 0.714 | 85,113,274 |
| 2030 | 0.617 | 86,892,512 |
| 2035 | 0.492 | 88,693,414 |
| 2040 | 0.356 | 89,951,885 |
| 2045 | 0.221 | 90,615,273 |
| 2050 | 0.081 | 90,656,580 |
| 2055 | -0.042 | 90,121,878 |
| 2060 | -0.156 | 89,098,451 |
| 2065 | -0.261 | 87,638,149 |
| 2070 | -0.355 | 85,804,712 |
| 2075 | -0.433 | 83,678,376 |
| 2080 | -0.494 | 81,353,523 |
| 2085 | -0.542 | 78,911,302 |
| 2090 | -0.584 | 76,405,642 |
| 2095 | -0.625 | 73,855,879 |
| 2100 | -0.658 | 71,288,964 |
Data from US Census International Database