Nigeria Rate of Natural Increase

Nigeria’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate, expressed as a percentage—is among the highest in Africa, typically estimated at around 2.5% to 2.7% per year as of the early 2020s. This high RNI is driven by Nigeria’s youthful population, high fertility rates (about 5.2 children per woman), and declining but still significant mortality rates. Compared to its neighbors, Nigeria’s RNI is similar to Niger’s, which is even higher (often exceeding 3%), reflecting Niger’s status as one of the world’s fastest-growing populations. In contrast, Cameroon and Benin have slightly lower RNIs, generally in the range of 2.4% to 2.6%, due to somewhat lower fertility rates and improvements in health care. Chad’s RNI is also high, close to Nigeria’s, but its higher mortality rate tempers population growth. Overall, while all these countries experience rapid population growth, Nigeria’s RNI stands out for its scale and impact, contributing to its status as Africa’s most populous country and underscoring the demographic pressures it faces compared to its neighbors.

Data from US Census International Database