The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Panama, which measures the difference between birth and death rates excluding migration, is moderate compared to its Central American neighbors. As of recent estimates, Panama's RNI stands at approximately 1.4% per year, reflecting a steady but slowing population growth. This rate is lower than that of Costa Rica (around 1.2%) and significantly lower than Nicaragua (about 1.6%) and Honduras (close to 1.7%), both of which have higher fertility rates and younger populations. In contrast, Panama's RNI is higher than that of many Caribbean nations and is similar to or slightly above the Latin American average. The relatively moderate RNI in Panama is influenced by its improving healthcare, urbanization, and declining fertility rates, setting it apart from some of its neighbors where higher birth rates persist.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 2.262 | 1,959,566 |
| 1985 | 2.275 | 2,174,472 |
| 1990 | 2.13 | 2,404,576 |
| 1995 | 2.007 | 2,650,078 |
| 2000 | 1.887 | 2,917,782 |
| 2005 | 1.621 | 3,200,816 |
| 2010 | 1.416 | 3,481,393 |
| 2015 | 1.496 | 3,783,321 |
| 2020 | 1.259 | 4,210,487 |
| 2024 | 1.175 | 4,470,241 |
| 2025 | 1.163 | 4,536,008 |
| 2026 | 1.132 | 4,600,852 |
| 2030 | 1.013 | 4,846,310 |
| 2035 | 0.911 | 5,123,749 |
| 2040 | 0.816 | 5,370,896 |
| 2045 | 0.726 | 5,593,457 |
| 2050 | 0.631 | 5,796,506 |
| 2055 | 0.531 | 5,975,566 |
| 2060 | 0.433 | 6,127,599 |
| 2065 | 0.345 | 6,252,275 |
| 2070 | 0.267 | 6,351,370 |
| 2075 | 0.196 | 6,426,446 |
| 2080 | 0.131 | 6,479,221 |
| 2085 | 0.072 | 6,512,007 |
| 2090 | 0.022 | 6,526,856 |
| 2095 | -0.018 | 6,527,025 |
| 2100 | -0.056 | 6,514,598 |
Data from US Census International Database