The rate of natural increase (RNI), which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, is a key indicator of population growth. In Saudi Arabia, the RNI has been moderate in recent years, reflecting a gradual decline in birth rates alongside low death rates due to improved healthcare and living standards. As of the early 2020s, Saudi Arabia’s RNI hovers around 1.5% per year. This rate is somewhat lower than that of neighboring Yemen, which maintains a higher RNI due to higher fertility rates, but it is higher than in more developed Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain, where RNI is significantly lower, often below 1%, due to lower birth rates and aging populations. In contrast to countries like Oman and Kuwait, Saudi Arabia’s RNI is similar, reflecting shared demographic trends in the region. Overall, while Saudi Arabia’s RNI remains positive and supports continued population growth, it shows signs of convergence with the broader trend of declining natural increase seen across the Gulf region.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 2.61 | 18,733,152 |
| 2000 | 2.321 | 21,361,821 |
| 2005 | 1.839 | 23,640,681 |
| 2010 | 1.7 | 27,962,740 |
| 2015 | 1.414 | 31,415,279 |
| 2020 | 1.161 | 34,223,743 |
| 2024 | 1.016 | 36,544,431 |
| 2025 | 0.99 | 37,172,774 |
| 2026 | 0.969 | 37,800,159 |
| 2030 | 0.902 | 40,069,904 |
| 2035 | 0.842 | 42,536,636 |
| 2040 | 0.758 | 44,689,927 |
| 2045 | 0.65 | 46,514,510 |
| 2050 | 0.534 | 47,966,097 |
| 2055 | 0.44 | 49,063,317 |
| 2060 | 0.373 | 49,870,218 |
| 2065 | 0.319 | 50,433,898 |
| 2070 | 0.267 | 50,775,400 |
| 2075 | 0.215 | 50,902,649 |
| 2080 | 0.166 | 50,827,986 |
| 2085 | 0.128 | 50,575,178 |
| 2090 | 0.099 | 50,173,911 |
| 2095 | 0.075 | 49,647,257 |
| 2100 | 0.059 | 49,014,712 |
Data from US Census International Database