Taiwan’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been negative in recent years, reflecting a declining population. As of 2023, Taiwan’s RNI is approximately -0.2%, driven by a persistently low fertility rate (around 0.87 children per woman) and an aging population. This trend is similar to that of neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea, both of which also experience negative or near-zero RNIs due to very low birth rates and increasing life expectancy. In contrast, China, while also facing a declining RNI, still maintains a slightly higher rate than Taiwan, though it too is trending downward rapidly. Other nearby countries in Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, continue to have positive RNIs, supported by higher fertility rates and younger populations. Thus, Taiwan’s demographic challenges mirror those of advanced East Asian economies, setting it apart from its more youthful and growing Southeast Asian neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1.112 | 20,278,248 |
| 1995 | 0.988 | 21,290,414 |
| 2000 | 0.821 | 22,184,552 |
| 2005 | 0.264 | 22,727,093 |
| 2010 | 0.078 | 23,110,964 |
| 2015 | 0.202 | 23,428,727 |
| 2020 | -0.025 | 23,563,036 |
| 2024 | -0.082 | 23,595,274 |
| 2025 | -0.096 | 23,600,776 |
| 2026 | -0.111 | 23,605,244 |
| 2030 | -0.2 | 23,601,754 |
| 2035 | -0.349 | 23,481,565 |
| 2040 | -0.5 | 23,185,353 |
| 2045 | -0.634 | 22,725,928 |
| 2050 | -0.746 | 22,132,472 |
| 2055 | -0.853 | 21,429,631 |
| 2060 | -0.937 | 20,646,303 |
| 2065 | -1.011 | 19,808,994 |
| 2070 | -1.078 | 18,933,457 |
| 2075 | -1.127 | 18,037,121 |
| 2080 | -1.145 | 17,148,738 |
| 2085 | -1.134 | 16,296,975 |
| 2090 | -1.117 | 15,493,479 |
| 2095 | -1.088 | 14,738,091 |
| 2100 | -1.034 | 14,041,585 |
Data from US Census International Database