Libya Rate of Natural Increase

Libya’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has remained positive but has slowed in recent years, reflecting broader demographic transitions in North Africa. As of the early 2020s, Libya’s RNI is estimated at around 1.5% per year, which is moderate compared to its neighbors. For instance, Egypt, to the east, has a slightly higher RNI of about 1.7%, driven by its large population and relatively high birth rates. In contrast, Tunisia to the northwest exhibits a much lower RNI, close to 1% or below, due to its declining fertility rates and more advanced demographic transition. Algeria, Libya’s western neighbor, has an RNI similar to Libya’s, hovering around 1.5%. Overall, while Libya’s population continues to grow naturally, its RNI is lower than Egypt’s but higher than Tunisia’s, reflecting differences in fertility, mortality, and stages of demographic change among these North African countries.

Data from US Census International Database