Zambia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—remains one of the highest in Southern Africa, at approximately 2.8% per year as of recent estimates. This high RNI is driven by Zambia’s elevated fertility rate and relatively young population, despite gradual declines in mortality rates. In comparison, neighboring countries such as Zimbabwe and Angola also exhibit high RNI values, though Zimbabwe’s rate is slightly lower due to higher emigration and a somewhat reduced birth rate. Botswana and Namibia, on the other hand, have significantly lower RNIs, largely because of more advanced healthcare systems, lower fertility rates, and successful family planning initiatives. Thus, while Zambia’s population is growing rapidly like some of its neighbors, its RNI stands out as particularly high, highlighting both demographic opportunities and challenges for the country.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 3.182 | 5,540,358 |
| 1985 | 3.105 | 6,546,694 |
| 1990 | 2.869 | 7,637,438 |
| 1995 | 2.825 | 8,808,320 |
| 2000 | 2.627 | 10,194,331 |
| 2005 | 3.133 | 11,721,238 |
| 2010 | 3.201 | 13,646,916 |
| 2015 | 3.055 | 15,914,626 |
| 2020 | 2.924 | 18,523,385 |
| 2024 | 2.818 | 20,799,116 |
| 2025 | 2.786 | 21,390,969 |
| 2026 | 2.758 | 21,992,316 |
| 2030 | 2.625 | 24,493,818 |
| 2035 | 2.446 | 27,807,418 |
| 2040 | 2.256 | 31,280,029 |
| 2045 | 2.067 | 34,852,418 |
| 2050 | 1.889 | 38,476,482 |
| 2055 | 1.732 | 42,124,057 |
| 2060 | 1.587 | 45,770,141 |
| 2065 | 1.45 | 49,382,895 |
| 2070 | 1.321 | 52,927,941 |
| 2075 | 1.2 | 56,372,985 |
| 2080 | 1.086 | 59,688,603 |
| 2085 | 0.978 | 62,849,293 |
| 2090 | 0.876 | 65,831,090 |
| 2095 | 0.78 | 68,614,401 |
| 2100 | 0.691 | 71,185,684 |
Data from US Census International Database