Germany’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—is currently negative, meaning deaths outnumber births. As of the early 2020s, Germany’s RNI hovers around -2 to -3 per 1,000 people annually, reflecting an aging population and persistently low fertility rates well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. This trend is similar to several of Germany’s neighbors, such as Italy and Poland, which also experience negative or near-zero RNI due to similar demographic challenges. In contrast, France stands out among Germany’s neighbors with a higher fertility rate and a slightly positive or near-zero RNI, supported by more robust family policies and social support systems. Meanwhile, countries like the Netherlands and Switzerland have RNI rates close to zero, balancing low birth rates with slightly lower mortality. Overall, Germany’s demographic profile is emblematic of much of Central and Eastern Europe, where population growth is increasingly dependent on migration rather than natural increase.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | -0.146 | 81,653,702 |
| 2000 | -0.088 | 82,183,670 |
| 2005 | -0.175 | 82,439,417 |
| 2010 | -0.223 | 81,751,319 |
| 2015 | -0.217 | 83,106,944 |
| 2020 | -0.28 | 84,498,245 |
| 2024 | -0.302 | 84,119,100 |
| 2025 | -0.309 | 84,012,284 |
| 2026 | -0.316 | 83,899,469 |
| 2030 | -0.347 | 83,392,190 |
| 2035 | -0.381 | 82,632,717 |
| 2040 | -0.408 | 81,760,150 |
| 2045 | -0.431 | 80,803,263 |
| 2050 | -0.454 | 79,776,607 |
| 2055 | -0.477 | 78,674,182 |
| 2060 | -0.476 | 77,551,693 |
| 2065 | -0.446 | 76,516,365 |
| 2070 | -0.403 | 75,649,563 |
| 2075 | -0.37 | 74,947,550 |
| 2080 | -0.358 | 74,339,723 |
| 2085 | -0.344 | 73,784,989 |
| 2090 | -0.326 | 73,298,621 |
| 2095 | -0.301 | 72,900,819 |
| 2100 | -0.284 | 72,589,745 |
Data from US Census International Database