Guernsey Rate of Natural Increase

Guernsey, a small island in the English Channel, has a relatively low rate of natural increase (RNI) in its population growth, primarily due to its aging population and low birth rates. Recent estimates suggest that Guernsey’s RNI is close to zero or even slightly negative, as the number of births barely keeps pace with, or falls below, the number of deaths. This trend is similar to that of its neighbor, Jersey, which also experiences low or negative natural population growth. In contrast, the United Kingdom, while also facing a declining RNI, generally maintains a slightly higher rate than Guernsey, largely due to its larger and more diverse population base. France, another nearby country, has historically had a higher RNI than both Guernsey and the UK, though it too has seen a gradual decline in recent years. Overall, Guernsey’s demographic trends reflect broader patterns of low natural increase seen across much of Western Europe, but its small size and limited immigration options make its population growth particularly stagnant compared to its larger neighbors.

Data from US Census International Database