France Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI), which measures population growth by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate, is relatively low in France compared to many other countries, but it stands out among its Western European neighbors. As of recent years, France’s RNI hovers just above zero, reflecting a modest natural population growth, largely due to its comparatively higher fertility rate (around 1.8 children per woman) among large Western European countries. In contrast, neighboring countries such as Germany and Italy have negative or near-zero RNI, as their birth rates have fallen below replacement level and their populations are aging more rapidly. Belgium and Switzerland also have low RNIs, though not as negative as Germany or Italy. Thus, while France faces similar demographic challenges as its neighbors, such as an aging population, it maintains a slightly more positive natural population growth, primarily due to higher fertility and a younger population structure.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19900.45358,254,893
19950.3859,821,005
20000.43561,251,229
20050.43963,054,116
20100.45464,934,209
20150.32466,575,000
20200.22667,858,873
20240.268,735,341
20250.19668,945,586
20260.18769,151,859
20300.15369,922,460
20350.08470,717,443
2040-0.00871,222,181
2045-0.08271,426,718
2050-0.12871,416,579
2055-0.15571,280,247
2060-0.17571,060,969
2065-0.18770,784,853
2070-0.19470,481,400
2075-0.20770,144,546
2080-0.22869,755,438
2085-0.25669,280,139
2090-0.2968,707,665
2095-0.3368,016,538
2100-0.37667,190,444

Data from US Census International Database