The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—in the United Kingdom has been notably low in recent years, hovering close to zero or even slightly negative. This means that the UK’s population growth is increasingly reliant on immigration rather than natural increase. In comparison, neighboring countries like France have a slightly higher RNI, thanks to higher fertility rates and a younger population, while Germany’s RNI is similar to or even lower than that of the UK, reflecting its older demographic and low birth rates. Ireland stands out among the UK’s neighbors, maintaining a positive RNI due to comparatively higher birth rates. Overall, the UK’s RNI aligns with the broader trend seen in Western Europe, where aging populations and low fertility rates contribute to stagnant or declining natural population growth, with migration playing a crucial role in sustaining population numbers.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.149 | 58,186,803 |
| 2000 | 0.119 | 59,139,969 |
| 2005 | 0.231 | 60,487,346 |
| 2010 | 0.406 | 62,502,490 |
| 2015 | 0.284 | 64,868,357 |
| 2020 | 0.177 | 67,022,855 |
| 2024 | 0.161 | 68,459,055 |
| 2025 | 0.151 | 68,751,311 |
| 2026 | 0.146 | 69,027,283 |
| 2030 | 0.118 | 70,088,809 |
| 2035 | 0.083 | 71,307,950 |
| 2040 | 0.053 | 72,423,278 |
| 2045 | 0.016 | 73,420,201 |
| 2050 | -0.024 | 74,268,354 |
| 2055 | -0.057 | 74,978,081 |
| 2060 | -0.074 | 75,593,335 |
| 2065 | -0.081 | 76,164,194 |
| 2070 | -0.086 | 76,712,671 |
| 2075 | -0.106 | 77,214,032 |
| 2080 | -0.137 | 77,615,354 |
| 2085 | -0.164 | 77,894,258 |
| 2090 | -0.177 | 78,092,721 |
| 2095 | -0.18 | 78,260,269 |
| 2100 | -0.181 | 78,421,884 |
Data from US Census International Database