Eritrea’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate, expressed as a percentage—is relatively high, reflecting its youthful population and moderate fertility rates. As of recent estimates, Eritrea's RNI hovers around 1.8% per year, indicating steady population growth. When compared to its neighbors, Eritrea’s RNI is lower than that of Ethiopia and Sudan, which both have RNIs exceeding 2%, driven by higher fertility rates and declining mortality. In contrast, Eritrea’s RNI is higher than Djibouti’s, which has a much lower RNI (around 1.2%) due to lower birth rates and a more urbanized population. Meanwhile, Eritrea’s RNI is similar to that of Somalia, where high fertility is offset by elevated mortality rates due to ongoing conflict and health challenges. Overall, Eritrea’s RNI places it in the middle range among its neighbors, reflecting a balance between ongoing demographic transition and persistent health and development challenges.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 2.739 | 2,568,741 |
| 1985 | 2.741 | 2,941,211 |
| 1990 | 2.911 | 3,060,332 |
| 1995 | 2.958 | 3,361,437 |
| 2000 | 2.375 | 3,884,174 |
| 2005 | 2.958 | 4,709,533 |
| 2010 | 2.651 | 5,368,638 |
| 2015 | 2.338 | 5,829,912 |
| 2020 | 2.1 | 6,088,682 |
| 2024 | 1.983 | 6,343,956 |
| 2025 | 1.949 | 6,416,435 |
| 2026 | 1.925 | 6,492,416 |
| 2030 | 1.832 | 6,836,545 |
| 2035 | 1.691 | 7,353,464 |
| 2040 | 1.526 | 7,909,918 |
| 2045 | 1.337 | 8,436,844 |
| 2050 | 1.172 | 8,921,842 |
| 2055 | 1.058 | 9,372,037 |
| 2060 | 0.953 | 9,794,168 |
| 2065 | 0.849 | 10,185,329 |
| 2070 | 0.739 | 10,537,932 |
| 2075 | 0.621 | 10,842,090 |
| 2080 | 0.5 | 11,089,588 |
| 2085 | 0.378 | 11,275,549 |
| 2090 | 0.26 | 11,397,092 |
| 2095 | 0.146 | 11,453,495 |
| 2100 | 0.039 | 11,446,688 |
Data from US Census International Database