Cook Islands Rate of Natural Increase

The Cook Islands has a notably low or even negative rate of natural increase (RNI), reflecting a population growth rate that is close to zero or declining. This is primarily due to low birth rates and high rates of emigration, particularly to New Zealand, which further reduces population growth. In contrast, neighboring Pacific nations such as Samoa and Tonga generally exhibit higher RNIs, driven by comparatively higher fertility rates and younger populations. While these neighboring countries also experience emigration, their natural increase is still sufficient to offset population losses, resulting in modest population growth. The Cook Islands’ demographic situation is thus distinct in the region, characterized by both a low birth rate and significant out-migration, leading to a stagnant or shrinking population, unlike its more rapidly growing neighbors.

Data from US Census International Database