El Salvador’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been steadily declining in recent decades and currently stands at approximately 0.5% per year, reflecting lower birth rates and relatively stable death rates. This RNI is among the lowest in Central America. In comparison, neighboring Honduras and Guatemala have higher RNIs, around 1.5% and 1.7% respectively, due to higher fertility rates and younger populations. Conversely, Nicaragua’s RNI is slightly higher than El Salvador’s, but also on a downward trend. These differences highlight El Salvador’s demographic transition toward slower population growth, influenced by factors such as increased urbanization, higher emigration, and improved access to family planning, while its neighbors—especially Honduras and Guatemala—continue to experience more robust natural population growth.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 2.291 | 5,469,886 |
| 2000 | 1.902 | 5,825,336 |
| 2005 | 1.418 | 5,899,475 |
| 2010 | 1.359 | 5,966,820 |
| 2015 | 1.328 | 6,205,387 |
| 2020 | 1.265 | 6,480,810 |
| 2024 | 1.115 | 6,628,702 |
| 2025 | 1.071 | 6,647,448 |
| 2026 | 1.028 | 6,661,366 |
| 2030 | 0.853 | 6,696,777 |
| 2035 | 0.646 | 6,693,932 |
| 2040 | 0.496 | 6,648,499 |
| 2045 | 0.387 | 6,578,045 |
| 2050 | 0.289 | 6,492,154 |
| 2055 | 0.158 | 6,387,171 |
| 2060 | -0.007 | 6,252,245 |
| 2065 | -0.179 | 6,082,735 |
| 2070 | -0.334 | 5,883,761 |
| 2075 | -0.466 | 5,664,747 |
| 2080 | -0.578 | 5,435,028 |
| 2085 | -0.658 | 5,204,231 |
| 2090 | -0.688 | 4,984,760 |
| 2095 | -0.661 | 4,790,741 |
| 2100 | -0.6 | 4,632,573 |
Data from US Census International Database