Romania Rate of Natural Increase

Romania’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—has been consistently negative in recent years, reflecting a shrinking population due to low birth rates and relatively high mortality. As of the early 2020s, Romania’s RNI is around -3 to -4 per 1,000 population annually. This trend is similar to neighboring Bulgaria, which also experiences a negative RNI, often even lower than Romania’s, making it one of the fastest-shrinking populations in the world. In contrast, Serbia and Hungary likewise face negative or near-zero RNIs, indicating stagnant or declining populations. However, Ukraine, despite recent turmoil, has an RNI that fluctuates but generally remains negative, while Moldova’s RNI is also negative, though sometimes slightly less so than Romania’s. In summary, Romania and its neighbors share the demographic challenge of negative natural increase, a pattern common in much of Eastern Europe, driven by aging populations, low fertility rates, and emigration.

Data from US Census International Database