The rate of natural increase (RNI), which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, is negative in Belarus, indicating a declining population due to more deaths than births. As of recent data, Belarus’s RNI hovers around -0.4% per year, reflecting low fertility rates and an aging population. This trend is similar to neighboring countries such as Russia and Ukraine, both of which also experience negative or near-zero RNI due to similar demographic challenges. In contrast, Poland and Lithuania, while also facing low birth rates and aging populations, have slightly less negative or near-zero RNIs, partly offset by migration inflows, especially from Ukraine. Thus, while the entire region is grappling with population decline, Belarus’s natural decrease is particularly pronounced and closely mirrors the demographic patterns of its eastern neighbors, with only modest differences compared to its western neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.32 | 10,200,432 |
| 1995 | -0.32 | 10,204,923 |
| 2000 | -0.41 | 10,033,392 |
| 2005 | -0.524 | 9,806,451 |
| 2010 | -0.302 | 9,680,067 |
| 2015 | -0.286 | 9,584,589 |
| 2020 | -0.349 | 9,468,822 |
| 2024 | -0.409 | 9,352,992 |
| 2025 | -0.419 | 9,321,125 |
| 2026 | -0.427 | 9,288,502 |
| 2030 | -0.444 | 9,154,191 |
| 2035 | -0.437 | 8,987,651 |
| 2040 | -0.448 | 8,825,382 |
| 2045 | -0.497 | 8,653,917 |
| 2050 | -0.558 | 8,461,760 |
| 2055 | -0.603 | 8,251,956 |
| 2060 | -0.635 | 8,032,615 |
| 2065 | -0.649 | 7,811,693 |
| 2070 | -0.66 | 7,593,291 |
| 2075 | -0.666 | 7,378,336 |
| 2080 | -0.648 | 7,172,400 |
| 2085 | -0.602 | 6,984,249 |
| 2090 | -0.543 | 6,820,652 |
| 2095 | -0.504 | 6,678,872 |
| 2100 | -0.509 | 6,546,260 |
Data from US Census International Database