Monaco’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth and death rates—is notably low and often negative, reflecting a demographic profile characterized by an aging population and very low fertility rates. In recent years, Monaco has experienced more deaths than births, resulting in a negative RNI, a trend common in many wealthy microstates. By contrast, neighboring France and Italy also exhibit low RNIs, but their rates are generally less negative or closer to zero due to their larger populations and slightly higher fertility rates. While all three countries face challenges related to aging populations and low birth rates, Monaco’s RNI is particularly impacted by its small size, high proportion of elderly residents, and the prevalence of expatriates, leading to a greater reliance on immigration for population growth compared to its larger neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | -0.067 | 29,972 |
| 1995 | -0.013 | 30,910 |
| 2000 | -0.059 | 31,855 |
| 2005 | -0.013 | 31,098 |
| 2010 | -0.081 | 30,589 |
| 2015 | -0.219 | 30,573 |
| 2020 | -0.357 | 31,066 |
| 2024 | -0.459 | 31,813 |
| 2025 | -0.49 | 32,047 |
| 2026 | -0.518 | 32,282 |
| 2030 | -0.632 | 33,062 |
| 2035 | -0.794 | 33,636 |
| 2040 | -0.975 | 33,745 |
| 2045 | -1.156 | 33,393 |
| 2050 | -1.264 | 32,661 |
| 2055 | -1.312 | 31,777 |
| 2060 | -1.293 | 30,928 |
| 2065 | -1.208 | 30,207 |
| 2070 | -1.082 | 29,686 |
| 2075 | -0.96 | 29,386 |
| 2080 | -0.878 | 29,253 |
| 2085 | -0.835 | 29,207 |
| 2090 | -0.825 | 29,204 |
| 2095 | -0.811 | 29,216 |
| 2100 | -0.804 | 29,235 |
Data from US Census International Database