Ethiopia Rate of Natural Increase

Ethiopia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth and death rates—remains one of the highest in Africa, reflecting a young population and high fertility rates. As of the early 2020s, Ethiopia’s RNI hovers around 2.5% per year, driven by a birth rate of approximately 30 per 1,000 and a declining death rate near 6 per 1,000. Compared to neighboring countries, Ethiopia’s RNI is higher than that of Sudan and Kenya, both of which have seen more significant declines in fertility and improvements in healthcare, leading to RNIs closer to 2% or slightly below. In contrast, countries like Somalia and South Sudan exhibit similar or even higher RNIs, due to persistently high birth rates and, in some cases, higher mortality from conflict or limited healthcare access. Thus, while Ethiopia’s population continues to grow rapidly, its demographic transition is progressing faster than in some neighbors but lags behind others, particularly those with more advanced family planning and health systems.

Data from US Census International Database