Kenya’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—remains relatively high, with an estimated RNI of about 2.5% per year as of the early 2020s. This reflects Kenya’s youthful population, declining but still elevated fertility rates, and improving healthcare that has reduced mortality. Compared to its neighbors, Kenya’s RNI is somewhat lower than that of Uganda (around 2.9%) and Tanzania (about 2.7%), both of which have higher fertility rates and slightly higher population growth. In contrast, Ethiopia’s RNI is closer to 2.4%, reflecting more rapid declines in fertility. To the south, Rwanda’s RNI is lower still, at about 2.2%, due to significant investments in family planning and health services. Thus, while Kenya’s population is growing rapidly, it is experiencing a moderate decline in RNI compared to some neighbors, signaling gradual demographic transition.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 3.969 | 16,330,821 |
| 1985 | 3.586 | 19,754,036 |
| 1990 | 2.992 | 23,277,208 |
| 1995 | 2.687 | 27,001,869 |
| 2000 | 2.803 | 30,922,122 |
| 2005 | 3.044 | 35,842,338 |
| 2010 | 2.85 | 41,761,298 |
| 2015 | 2.417 | 47,824,362 |
| 2020 | 2.201 | 53,513,653 |
| 2024 | 2.075 | 58,246,378 |
| 2025 | 2.042 | 59,446,843 |
| 2026 | 2.02 | 60,655,839 |
| 2030 | 1.911 | 65,581,608 |
| 2035 | 1.753 | 71,838,265 |
| 2040 | 1.573 | 78,029,635 |
| 2045 | 1.387 | 83,970,900 |
| 2050 | 1.225 | 89,573,347 |
| 2055 | 1.128 | 94,942,551 |
| 2060 | 1.032 | 100,157,642 |
| 2065 | 0.927 | 105,134,333 |
| 2070 | 0.815 | 109,759,087 |
| 2075 | 0.7 | 113,939,184 |
| 2080 | 0.593 | 117,626,328 |
| 2085 | 0.489 | 120,794,591 |
| 2090 | 0.384 | 123,407,426 |
| 2095 | 0.278 | 125,413,899 |
| 2100 | 0.174 | 126,781,068 |
Data from US Census International Database