Poland's rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been negative in recent years, reflecting a demographic trend common across much of Central and Eastern Europe. As of the early 2020s, Poland's RNI is approximately -0.2% per year, indicating that deaths outnumber births. This decline is similar to neighboring countries such as Hungary and Ukraine, which also experience negative RNIs due to low fertility rates and aging populations. In contrast, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have slightly higher, but still low or negative, RNIs, while Germany, to the west, also faces a negative RNI. However, Lithuania, to the northeast, has recently seen a modest positive RNI, partly due to returning emigrants and slight increases in birth rates. Overall, Poland's demographic situation mirrors a broader regional pattern of population decline, though the pace and specific causes may vary among its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.413 | 38,119,408 |
| 1995 | 0.122 | 38,600,640 |
| 2000 | 0.027 | 38,654,162 |
| 2005 | -0.01 | 38,556,604 |
| 2010 | 0.073 | 38,616,395 |
| 2015 | -0.049 | 38,559,087 |
| 2020 | -0.177 | 38,270,292 |
| 2024 | -0.267 | 37,882,031 |
| 2025 | -0.289 | 37,764,255 |
| 2026 | -0.309 | 37,638,911 |
| 2030 | -0.376 | 37,074,111 |
| 2035 | -0.427 | 36,269,582 |
| 2040 | -0.466 | 35,406,220 |
| 2045 | -0.518 | 34,482,878 |
| 2050 | -0.573 | 33,491,484 |
| 2055 | -0.641 | 32,425,640 |
| 2060 | -0.698 | 31,294,094 |
| 2065 | -0.754 | 30,116,663 |
| 2070 | -0.807 | 28,900,839 |
| 2075 | -0.845 | 27,665,530 |
| 2080 | -0.841 | 26,456,747 |
| 2085 | -0.792 | 25,332,586 |
| 2090 | -0.71 | 24,335,985 |
| 2095 | -0.644 | 23,464,967 |
| 2100 | -0.61 | 22,682,850 |
Data from US Census International Database