Ecuador Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Ecuador, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, has been gradually declining in recent decades but remains higher than that of some of its neighbors. As of the early 2020s, Ecuador’s RNI is around 1.2% per year, reflecting a moderate population growth fueled by a relatively high birth rate and decreasing mortality. In comparison, Colombia to the north has a slightly lower RNI, hovering around 1.0%, while Peru to the south is similar to Ecuador, with an RNI of approximately 1.2%. In contrast, countries like Chile, further south, have a significantly lower RNI, often below 0.5%, due to lower fertility rates and an aging population. Thus, while Ecuador’s natural population growth is slowing, it remains robust compared to some of its southern neighbors but is converging with regional trends of declining fertility and slower growth.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19902.38210,318,036
19952.24411,265,611
20002.00212,445,838
20051.75713,661,288
20101.52814,786,116
20151.34115,860,106
20201.18316,894,461
20241.07217,674,168
20251.04117,861,804
20261.01718,046,533
20300.90918,755,861
20350.77119,561,162
20400.6420,263,542
20450.51920,858,769
20500.40921,348,217
20550.31321,737,759
20600.21622,027,710
20650.11622,211,118
20700.01422,282,544
2075-0.08422,242,411
2080-0.17422,097,936
2085-0.25321,862,578
2090-0.31721,552,309
2095-0.36821,184,643
2100-0.40720,776,560

Data from US Census International Database