The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Ecuador, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, has been gradually declining in recent decades but remains higher than that of some of its neighbors. As of the early 2020s, Ecuador’s RNI is around 1.2% per year, reflecting a moderate population growth fueled by a relatively high birth rate and decreasing mortality. In comparison, Colombia to the north has a slightly lower RNI, hovering around 1.0%, while Peru to the south is similar to Ecuador, with an RNI of approximately 1.2%. In contrast, countries like Chile, further south, have a significantly lower RNI, often below 0.5%, due to lower fertility rates and an aging population. Thus, while Ecuador’s natural population growth is slowing, it remains robust compared to some of its southern neighbors but is converging with regional trends of declining fertility and slower growth.
Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
---|---|---|
1990 | 2.382 | 10,318,036 |
1995 | 2.244 | 11,265,611 |
2000 | 2.002 | 12,445,838 |
2005 | 1.757 | 13,661,288 |
2010 | 1.528 | 14,786,116 |
2015 | 1.341 | 15,860,106 |
2020 | 1.183 | 16,894,461 |
2024 | 1.072 | 17,674,168 |
2025 | 1.041 | 17,861,804 |
2026 | 1.017 | 18,046,533 |
2030 | 0.909 | 18,755,861 |
2035 | 0.771 | 19,561,162 |
2040 | 0.64 | 20,263,542 |
2045 | 0.519 | 20,858,769 |
2050 | 0.409 | 21,348,217 |
2055 | 0.313 | 21,737,759 |
2060 | 0.216 | 22,027,710 |
2065 | 0.116 | 22,211,118 |
2070 | 0.014 | 22,282,544 |
2075 | -0.084 | 22,242,411 |
2080 | -0.174 | 22,097,936 |
2085 | -0.253 | 21,862,578 |
2090 | -0.317 | 21,552,309 |
2095 | -0.368 | 21,184,643 |
2100 | -0.407 | 20,776,560 |
Data from US Census International Database