Costa Rica’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been steadily declining over recent decades, reflecting broader demographic transitions in Central America. As of the early 2020s, Costa Rica’s RNI hovers around 0.9% per year, which is lower than many of its immediate neighbors. For example, Nicaragua and Honduras both have higher RNIs, typically above 1.2%, due to higher birth rates and relatively younger populations. In contrast, Panama’s RNI is similar to Costa Rica’s, while El Salvador’s is slightly lower, reflecting even slower population growth. Costa Rica’s lower RNI is largely attributed to its higher levels of education, better access to healthcare, and successful family planning initiatives, which have led to a significant reduction in fertility rates compared to its neighbors. This demographic trend positions Costa Rica closer to the patterns observed in more developed countries, while its neighbors, though also experiencing declines, still maintain higher natural population growth.
Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
---|---|---|
1985 | 2.761 | 2,644,306 |
1990 | 2.303 | 3,023,272 |
1995 | 1.89 | 3,444,735 |
2000 | 1.599 | 3,882,582 |
2005 | 1.284 | 4,208,692 |
2010 | 1.228 | 4,515,673 |
2015 | 1.134 | 4,812,345 |
2020 | 0.996 | 5,096,857 |
2024 | 0.876 | 5,307,687 |
2025 | 0.845 | 5,357,562 |
2026 | 0.813 | 5,406,170 |
2030 | 0.695 | 5,587,779 |
2035 | 0.558 | 5,785,418 |
2040 | 0.438 | 5,951,190 |
2045 | 0.325 | 6,085,892 |
2050 | 0.212 | 6,188,395 |
2055 | 0.115 | 6,259,193 |
2060 | 0.023 | 6,300,532 |
2065 | -0.063 | 6,314,086 |
2070 | -0.142 | 6,301,682 |
2075 | -0.215 | 6,265,415 |
2080 | -0.275 | 6,208,576 |
2085 | -0.315 | 6,136,997 |
2090 | -0.332 | 6,057,884 |
2095 | -0.341 | 5,976,486 |
2100 | -0.352 | 5,893,750 |
Data from US Census International Database