Costa Rica Rate of Natural Increase

Costa Rica’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been steadily declining over recent decades, reflecting broader demographic transitions in Central America. As of the early 2020s, Costa Rica’s RNI hovers around 0.9% per year, which is lower than many of its immediate neighbors. For example, Nicaragua and Honduras both have higher RNIs, typically above 1.2%, due to higher birth rates and relatively younger populations. In contrast, Panama’s RNI is similar to Costa Rica’s, while El Salvador’s is slightly lower, reflecting even slower population growth. Costa Rica’s lower RNI is largely attributed to its higher levels of education, better access to healthcare, and successful family planning initiatives, which have led to a significant reduction in fertility rates compared to its neighbors. This demographic trend positions Costa Rica closer to the patterns observed in more developed countries, while its neighbors, though also experiencing declines, still maintain higher natural population growth.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19852.7612,644,306
19902.3033,023,272
19951.893,444,735
20001.5993,882,582
20051.2844,208,692
20101.2284,515,673
20151.1344,812,345
20200.9965,096,857
20240.8765,307,687
20250.8455,357,562
20260.8135,406,170
20300.6955,587,779
20350.5585,785,418
20400.4385,951,190
20450.3256,085,892
20500.2126,188,395
20550.1156,259,193
20600.0236,300,532
2065-0.0636,314,086
2070-0.1426,301,682
2075-0.2156,265,415
2080-0.2756,208,576
2085-0.3156,136,997
2090-0.3326,057,884
2095-0.3415,976,486
2100-0.3525,893,750

Data from US Census International Database