Egypt Rate of Natural Increase

Egypt’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between the crude birth rate and crude death rate—has remained relatively high compared to many of its neighboring countries. As of recent years, Egypt’s RNI hovers around 1.7% to 2% annually, reflecting a youthful population and a birth rate that, while declining, remains substantial. In contrast, countries like Libya and Sudan also exhibit high RNIs, though Sudan’s is slightly higher due to a higher birth rate and lower median age. Conversely, Israel’s RNI is similar to or slightly higher than Egypt’s, driven by both high birth rates among certain communities and lower mortality. Meanwhile, countries such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia have seen their RNIs decline more rapidly due to falling fertility rates and increased urbanization. In stark contrast, Mediterranean neighbors like Greece and Italy, though not immediate neighbors but within the broader region, experience negative or near-zero RNIs due to aging populations and low fertility. Thus, Egypt’s RNI is high by global standards and remains a key driver of its rapid population growth, setting it apart from many countries in the Middle East and North Africa that are experiencing demographic transitions toward lower natural increase.

Data from US Census International Database