Oman’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been gradually declining in recent years, reflecting broader demographic trends in the region. As of the early 2020s, Oman’s RNI is estimated to be around 1.8% per year, which is moderate compared to some of its neighbors. For instance, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also exhibit decreasing RNIs, with Saudi Arabia’s rate slightly lower and the UAE’s even lower, partly due to their higher proportions of expatriate populations and lower fertility rates among citizens. In contrast, Yemen, Oman’s southern neighbor, continues to have a significantly higher RNI—above 2%—due to higher fertility rates and a younger population, despite ongoing conflict and humanitarian crises. Overall, Oman’s RNI reflects a transition towards lower population growth, similar to wealthier Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, but remains higher than the most developed countries in the region.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 2.688 | 2,138,564 |
| 2000 | 2.231 | 2,432,191 |
| 2005 | 1.906 | 2,695,191 |
| 2010 | 2.026 | 2,962,837 |
| 2015 | 2.102 | 3,279,258 |
| 2020 | 1.976 | 3,624,823 |
| 2024 | 1.795 | 3,901,992 |
| 2025 | 1.748 | 3,969,824 |
| 2026 | 1.697 | 4,036,792 |
| 2030 | 1.51 | 4,294,464 |
| 2035 | 1.326 | 4,594,402 |
| 2040 | 1.209 | 4,877,371 |
| 2045 | 1.131 | 5,152,426 |
| 2050 | 1.053 | 5,421,335 |
| 2055 | 0.929 | 5,674,214 |
| 2060 | 0.777 | 5,896,269 |
| 2065 | 0.627 | 6,079,209 |
| 2070 | 0.5 | 6,223,407 |
| 2075 | 0.402 | 6,334,649 |
| 2080 | 0.327 | 6,419,391 |
| 2085 | 0.262 | 6,481,869 |
| 2090 | 0.199 | 6,523,316 |
| 2095 | 0.133 | 6,542,918 |
| 2100 | 0.064 | 6,539,818 |
Data from US Census International Database