Cuba Rate of Natural Increase

Cuba’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been notably low in recent years, even approaching zero or becoming negative. This reflects Cuba’s low fertility rate, which is well below replacement level, and a relatively high proportion of elderly citizens. In contrast, many of Cuba’s neighboring countries in the Caribbean and Central America, such as the Dominican Republic and Haiti, have higher RNIs due to higher birth rates and younger populations, despite improvements in healthcare and declining mortality. While Cuba’s population growth is stagnating or even declining, its neighbors continue to experience moderate to high population growth, highlighting significant demographic differences in the region.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19851.13710,084,201
19901.0810,596,572
19950.63410,920,902
20000.60211,146,712
20050.31811,267,721
20100.32511,261,892
20150.25311,213,978
20200.12511,058,573
20240.04110,966,038
20250.02110,948,294
2026-0.00110,930,643
2030-0.07310,842,995
2035-0.14910,703,968
2040-0.22610,537,139
2045-0.31910,338,941
2050-0.43410,100,436
2055-0.5389,815,275
2060-0.5859,499,574
2065-0.5699,185,965
2070-0.5258,896,760
2075-0.5058,630,652
2080-0.5238,371,324
2085-0.5628,105,450
2090-0.5687,838,075
2095-0.5567,580,033
2100-0.5647,330,437

Data from US Census International Database