New Caledonia Rate of Natural Increase

New Caledonia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been relatively modest in recent years, estimated at around 0.7% per year. This RNI is lower than that of many neighboring Pacific island nations such as Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, which have RNIs exceeding 2% due to higher birth rates and younger populations. In contrast, New Caledonia’s RNI is similar to or slightly higher than that of French Polynesia, another French overseas territory, which also experiences lower birth rates and an aging demographic. The comparatively low RNI in New Caledonia reflects its higher standard of living, better healthcare, and greater urbanization, all of which contribute to declining fertility rates and slower natural population growth compared to its less developed neighbors.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19851.762152,587
19901.996168,903
19951.68191,780
20001.646211,189
20051.294232,395
20101.133252,363
20150.982271,652
20200.86290,033
20240.781304,167
20250.76307,612
20260.74311,020
20300.649324,192
20350.535339,444
20400.436353,269
20450.35365,748
20500.261376,851
20550.177386,473
20600.096394,571
20650.024401,186
2070-0.035406,486
2075-0.085410,679
2080-0.131413,881
2085-0.172416,153
2090-0.207417,607
2095-0.231418,429
2100-0.245418,866

Data from US Census International Database