Tunisia Rate of Natural Increase

Tunisia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—has steadily declined in recent decades, reflecting broader demographic transitions in North Africa. As of the early 2020s, Tunisia’s RNI hovers around 0.9% per year, indicating moderate population growth driven by a falling but still positive gap between births and deaths. This is lower than neighboring Algeria, whose RNI is approximately 1.5%, and significantly below Libya’s RNI, which is about 1.8%. Tunisia’s lower RNI is largely due to its earlier and more pronounced fertility decline, influenced by effective family planning policies and higher female education rates. In contrast, both Algeria and Libya maintain higher fertility rates and younger populations, resulting in faster natural population growth. Thus, while all three countries are experiencing demographic transition, Tunisia is further along this path, with slower natural population growth compared to its neighbors.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19951.498,998,898
20001.1379,545,892
20051.10810,029,805
20101.35110,525,963
20151.32811,161,137
20200.94611,719,458
20240.70812,048,847
20250.65112,115,018
20260.60712,175,511
20300.46212,372,114
20350.38712,553,077
20400.35512,708,273
20450.28412,837,035
20500.13412,895,172
2055-0.03912,845,815
2060-0.17712,694,922
2065-0.26412,474,587
2070-0.31512,215,592
2075-0.35811,933,101
2080-0.40511,629,226
2085-0.45111,304,466
2090-0.49410,962,088
2095-0.54810,602,570
2100-0.62210,219,885

Data from US Census International Database