Mali Rate of Natural Increase

Mali has one of the highest rates of natural increase (RNI) in the world, with an estimated RNI of about 3.0% per year as of the early 2020s. This high RNI is driven by a high birth rate (around 41 births per 1,000 people) and a relatively high, though declining, death rate. When compared to its neighbors, Mali's RNI is similar to Niger, which also has an extremely high RNI (over 3%), reflecting similar demographic patterns such as high fertility rates and youthful populations. In contrast, countries like Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire have slightly lower RNIs, typically ranging from 2.3% to 2.7%, due to modestly lower fertility rates and improvements in healthcare. Meanwhile, Algeria, to the north, has a much lower RNI (around 1.5%) due to significantly lower birth rates and more advanced demographic transition. Thus, while Mali shares high population growth dynamics with some of its immediate neighbors, especially to the east, it stands in contrast to North African neighbors that are further along in demographic transition.

Data from US Census International Database