China Rate of Natural Increase

China’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has declined sharply in recent decades, reaching near zero or even negative values in recent years. In 2023, China’s RNI turned negative for the first time in decades, signaling a shrinking population as deaths outnumbered births. This contrasts with neighboring countries like India, which still maintains a positive RNI, though it too is gradually declining as fertility rates fall. Other neighbors, such as Japan and South Korea, also experience negative or near-zero RNIs, reflecting aging populations and persistently low birth rates. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and the Philippines continue to have higher, though declining, RNIs, indicating ongoing population growth. Thus, while China’s demographic trajectory increasingly mirrors that of other East Asian nations with aging populations, it stands in contrast to the still-growing populations of many South and Southeast Asian neighbors.

Data from US Census International Database