The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—remains a key factor in India’s population growth. As of the early 2020s, India’s RNI hovers around 1.0% to 1.2% annually, reflecting a gradual decline from previous decades due to falling fertility rates and improved healthcare. Compared to its neighbors, India’s RNI is lower than that of Pakistan, which maintains a higher RNI of about 1.9% due to higher fertility rates, but higher than countries like China, whose RNI has dropped close to zero as a result of an aging population and very low birth rates. Bangladesh’s RNI is slightly below India’s, around 1.0%, reflecting similar demographic transitions. In contrast, Nepal and Sri Lanka have even lower RNIs, with Sri Lanka approaching zero or negative growth due to very low fertility and an aging demographic. This comparison highlights India’s position in a transitional phase: its population continues to grow, but at a much slower pace than in the past and at a moderate rate compared to its South Asian neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 1.949 | 957,664,579 |
| 2000 | 1.746 | 1,049,692,922 |
| 2005 | 1.543 | 1,138,451,972 |
| 2010 | 1.331 | 1,220,718,718 |
| 2015 | 1.177 | 1,297,588,343 |
| 2020 | 0.97 | 1,369,541,070 |
| 2024 | 0.71 | 1,409,128,296 |
| 2025 | 0.721 | 1,419,316,933 |
| 2026 | 0.735 | 1,429,700,205 |
| 2030 | 0.739 | 1,472,251,252 |
| 2035 | 0.626 | 1,522,819,483 |
| 2040 | 0.491 | 1,564,694,342 |
| 2045 | 0.375 | 1,597,727,086 |
| 2050 | 0.269 | 1,622,372,511 |
| 2055 | 0.164 | 1,638,721,996 |
| 2060 | 0.066 | 1,646,862,071 |
| 2065 | -0.031 | 1,646,993,787 |
| 2070 | -0.119 | 1,639,583,160 |
| 2075 | -0.2 | 1,625,309,976 |
| 2080 | -0.278 | 1,604,695,990 |
| 2085 | -0.339 | 1,578,797,358 |
| 2090 | -0.388 | 1,549,036,217 |
| 2095 | -0.424 | 1,516,608,813 |
| 2100 | -0.45 | 1,482,525,207 |
Data from US Census International Database