Greece currently experiences a negative rate of natural increase (RNI), meaning that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, resulting in a natural population decline. As of the early 2020s, Greece’s RNI hovers around -0.4% per year, reflecting low fertility rates and an aging population. This trend is similar to other Southern European countries like Italy and Bulgaria, which also face negative or near-zero RNI due to similar demographic challenges. In contrast, neighboring countries such as Albania and Turkey have a positive RNI, albeit declining over time; for example, Turkey’s RNI remains above zero due to higher birth rates, while Albania’s is positive but steadily decreasing. Thus, while much of the region is experiencing demographic stagnation or decline, Greece’s natural decrease is among the more pronounced, highlighting significant differences in population dynamics among its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.012 | 10,634,322 |
| 2000 | -0.018 | 10,925,795 |
| 2005 | 0.023 | 10,990,646 |
| 2010 | 0.052 | 11,039,844 |
| 2015 | -0.274 | 10,728,157 |
| 2020 | -0.42 | 10,604,841 |
| 2024 | -0.456 | 10,461,091 |
| 2025 | -0.461 | 10,424,536 |
| 2026 | -0.464 | 10,387,931 |
| 2030 | -0.463 | 10,242,709 |
| 2035 | -0.456 | 10,066,836 |
| 2040 | -0.465 | 9,895,646 |
| 2045 | -0.519 | 9,713,202 |
| 2050 | -0.59 | 9,504,172 |
| 2055 | -0.657 | 9,268,234 |
| 2060 | -0.688 | 9,016,470 |
| 2065 | -0.675 | 8,769,291 |
| 2070 | -0.623 | 8,544,817 |
| 2075 | -0.556 | 8,353,149 |
| 2080 | -0.493 | 8,194,008 |
| 2085 | -0.444 | 8,062,011 |
| 2090 | -0.421 | 7,947,230 |
| 2095 | -0.419 | 7,839,490 |
| 2100 | -0.425 | 7,732,761 |
Data from US Census International Database