Indonesia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been gradually declining over recent decades, reflecting broader demographic transitions in Southeast Asia. As of 2023, Indonesia’s RNI is approximately 1.0% per year, indicating moderate population growth. This rate is lower than some of its neighbors, such as the Philippines, which has an RNI of about 1.5%, driven by higher birth rates and a younger population. Conversely, Indonesia’s RNI is higher than that of Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. Thailand’s RNI is close to zero, reflecting an aging population and low fertility rates, while Malaysia’s RNI is around 1.1%, only slightly higher than Indonesia’s. Singapore, meanwhile, has a negative RNI, with deaths outpacing births, and relies on immigration for population growth. Thus, Indonesia sits in the middle of the regional spectrum, experiencing slower natural population growth than the Philippines but a faster rate than Thailand and Singapore.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 2.101 | 150,321,499 |
| 1985 | 1.902 | 166,069,317 |
| 1990 | 1.773 | 181,599,234 |
| 1995 | 1.771 | 197,603,426 |
| 2000 | 1.616 | 214,090,575 |
| 2005 | 1.545 | 230,421,225 |
| 2010 | 1.354 | 246,256,766 |
| 2015 | 1.123 | 260,617,061 |
| 2020 | 0.914 | 272,856,400 |
| 2024 | 0.801 | 281,562,465 |
| 2025 | 0.773 | 283,587,097 |
| 2026 | 0.755 | 285,562,809 |
| 2030 | 0.681 | 293,084,824 |
| 2035 | 0.593 | 301,603,148 |
| 2040 | 0.49 | 308,923,886 |
| 2045 | 0.364 | 314,615,052 |
| 2050 | 0.239 | 318,393,046 |
| 2055 | 0.128 | 320,309,273 |
| 2060 | 0.043 | 320,660,487 |
| 2065 | -0.034 | 319,727,017 |
| 2070 | -0.096 | 317,698,870 |
| 2075 | -0.157 | 314,707,963 |
| 2080 | -0.218 | 310,788,090 |
| 2085 | -0.282 | 305,936,215 |
| 2090 | -0.345 | 300,187,878 |
| 2095 | -0.403 | 293,635,144 |
| 2100 | -0.449 | 286,450,836 |
Data from US Census International Database