Vietnam’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been steadily declining over the past decades, reflecting broader demographic transitions in Southeast Asia. As of 2023, Vietnam’s RNI is approximately 0.8% per year, indicating moderate population growth. This rate is lower than that of neighboring Cambodia and Laos, both of which have RNIs above 1%, driven by higher birth rates and younger populations. In contrast, Vietnam’s RNI is higher than that of Thailand and China, where RNI has fallen below 0.5% and, in China’s case, is approaching zero or even negative due to very low birth rates and an aging population. Vietnam’s demographic trends are shaped by successful family planning programs and rising urbanization, positioning it between the higher-growth, less developed neighbors and the more developed, slower-growing societies nearby.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2.202 | 67,265,921 |
| 1995 | 1.72 | 73,885,200 |
| 2000 | 1.395 | 79,451,866 |
| 2005 | 1.328 | 84,920,497 |
| 2010 | 1.263 | 90,458,607 |
| 2015 | 1.242 | 96,197,851 |
| 2020 | 1.064 | 101,745,119 |
| 2024 | 0.914 | 105,758,975 |
| 2025 | 0.877 | 106,688,169 |
| 2026 | 0.843 | 107,587,618 |
| 2030 | 0.716 | 110,900,897 |
| 2035 | 0.581 | 114,434,819 |
| 2040 | 0.458 | 117,338,534 |
| 2045 | 0.329 | 119,568,023 |
| 2050 | 0.19 | 121,027,926 |
| 2055 | 0.083 | 121,748,314 |
| 2060 | -0.017 | 121,833,805 |
| 2065 | -0.106 | 121,343,791 |
| 2070 | -0.188 | 120,342,078 |
| 2075 | -0.262 | 118,882,521 |
| 2080 | -0.319 | 117,050,112 |
| 2085 | -0.358 | 114,969,134 |
| 2090 | -0.379 | 112,762,286 |
| 2095 | -0.402 | 110,476,605 |
| 2100 | -0.439 | 108,076,146 |
Data from US Census International Database