Russia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—has been negative or near zero for much of the 21st century, reflecting a demographic decline. As of recent years, Russia’s RNI remains below zero, with deaths outpacing births, contributing to a shrinking population. In contrast, many of Russia’s neighboring countries, such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in Central Asia, exhibit positive RNI, driven by higher birth rates and younger populations. Meanwhile, other neighbors like Ukraine and Belarus also face low or negative RNI, mirroring Russia’s demographic challenges. Thus, while Russia shares low or negative RNI with some Eastern European neighbors, it contrasts sharply with the population growth seen in Central Asian states.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.225 | 148,359,316 |
| 1995 | -0.56 | 149,724,243 |
| 2000 | -0.639 | 148,020,170 |
| 2005 | -0.587 | 144,285,722 |
| 2010 | -0.167 | 143,493,100 |
| 2015 | -0.217 | 143,343,305 |
| 2020 | -0.346 | 142,588,206 |
| 2024 | -0.416 | 141,359,457 |
| 2025 | -0.424 | 141,008,099 |
| 2026 | -0.43 | 140,647,826 |
| 2030 | -0.447 | 139,142,980 |
| 2035 | -0.423 | 137,323,001 |
| 2040 | -0.423 | 135,676,131 |
| 2045 | -0.474 | 133,880,610 |
| 2050 | -0.536 | 131,733,062 |
| 2055 | -0.565 | 129,332,623 |
| 2060 | -0.569 | 126,898,188 |
| 2065 | -0.565 | 124,541,696 |
| 2070 | -0.569 | 122,251,627 |
| 2075 | -0.567 | 120,014,409 |
| 2080 | -0.553 | 117,883,407 |
| 2085 | -0.515 | 115,963,492 |
| 2090 | -0.465 | 114,352,468 |
| 2095 | -0.442 | 113,001,347 |
| 2100 | -0.459 | 111,690,607 |
Data from US Census International Database