The rate of natural increase (RNI), which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, is relatively low in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) compared to many of its neighboring countries. As of recent years, the UAE’s RNI hovers around 1% or lower, reflecting modest natural population growth. This is largely due to declining fertility rates, which are now below the replacement level, and a relatively low crude death rate. In contrast, neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and Oman still maintain higher RNIs, driven by higher birth rates and younger populations. However, all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including the UAE, are experiencing a trend of declining RNIs due to urbanization, increased education, and improved access to family planning. Unlike some of its neighbors, the UAE’s overall population growth is primarily fueled by immigration rather than natural increase, making its demographic profile distinct in the region.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 1.816 | 2,369,781 |
| 2000 | 1.486 | 3,230,742 |
| 2005 | 1.458 | 3,935,820 |
| 2010 | 0.873 | 8,020,877 |
| 2015 | 0.92 | 9,308,415 |
| 2020 | 0.948 | 9,792,173 |
| 2024 | 0.903 | 10,032,213 |
| 2025 | 0.892 | 10,093,593 |
| 2026 | 0.887 | 10,159,428 |
| 2030 | 0.874 | 10,479,358 |
| 2035 | 0.869 | 10,965,355 |
| 2040 | 0.864 | 11,473,536 |
| 2045 | 0.843 | 11,955,935 |
| 2050 | 0.811 | 12,429,115 |
| 2055 | 0.779 | 12,869,683 |
| 2060 | 0.75 | 13,253,704 |
| 2065 | 0.737 | 13,590,128 |
| 2070 | 0.738 | 13,887,688 |
| 2075 | 0.747 | 14,153,546 |
| 2080 | 0.762 | 14,394,606 |
| 2085 | 0.777 | 14,615,096 |
| 2090 | 0.786 | 14,814,839 |
| 2095 | 0.788 | 14,991,664 |
| 2100 | 0.789 | 15,143,404 |
Data from US Census International Database