Azerbaijan Rate of Natural Increase

Azerbaijan’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth and death rates—is moderate compared to its neighbors. As of recent estimates, Azerbaijan’s RNI is around 0.7% per year, reflecting a birth rate that exceeds the death rate but at a slowing pace due to declining fertility. This rate is higher than that of Armenia and Georgia, both of which have very low or even negative RNIs, driven by lower birth rates and significant emigration. In contrast, Azerbaijan’s RNI is lower than that of its eastern neighbor, Iran, and especially much lower than Turkey, both of which maintain higher birth rates and thus higher RNIs. Meanwhile, Russia to the north has a near-zero or slightly negative RNI, reflecting an aging population and low fertility. Overall, Azerbaijan’s population is still growing naturally, but at a rate that places it between the more rapidly growing populations of Turkey and Iran and the stagnant or declining populations of Armenia, Georgia, and Russia.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19902.1067,497,290
19951.278,050,585
20000.9248,463,076
20051.0428,825,439
20101.0239,301,693
20150.9579,781,046
20200.75110,207,465
20240.59310,484,291
20250.56610,545,208
20260.54110,603,697
20300.44710,814,481
20350.35111,031,759
20400.25711,201,444
20450.14411,314,678
20500.02311,361,504
2055-0.07711,345,036
2060-0.15511,277,764
2065-0.2211,171,854
2070-0.28511,031,743
2075-0.35510,856,049
2080-0.4110,649,123
2085-0.43810,424,317
2090-0.44110,197,087
2095-0.4399,975,568
2100-0.4579,755,697

Data from US Census International Database