The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—has been negative in Puerto Rico in recent years, indicating a declining population due to more deaths than births. As of the early 2020s, Puerto Rico's RNI stands at around -6 per 1,000 people, reflecting low fertility rates and an aging population. This trend contrasts sharply with many of its Caribbean neighbors, such as the Dominican Republic and Haiti, which continue to exhibit positive RNIs. For instance, the Dominican Republic’s RNI is approximately +11 per 1,000, and Haiti’s is even higher, driven by higher birth rates and younger populations. While some other Caribbean islands like Cuba also experience low or negative RNIs, Puerto Rico’s population decline is particularly notable, exacerbated by significant outmigration to the U.S. mainland. Overall, Puerto Rico’s demographic trajectory sets it apart from much of the region, where natural population growth remains positive.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 0.345 | 3,721,525 |
| 2015 | 0.083 | 3,472,858 |
| 2020 | -0.139 | 3,190,410 |
| 2024 | -0.243 | 3,019,450 |
| 2025 | -0.27 | 2,984,841 |
| 2026 | -0.294 | 2,951,840 |
| 2030 | -0.375 | 2,818,318 |
| 2035 | -0.498 | 2,646,152 |
| 2040 | -0.616 | 2,469,336 |
| 2045 | -0.709 | 2,303,946 |
| 2050 | -0.765 | 2,163,684 |
| 2055 | -0.797 | 2,048,626 |
| 2060 | -0.807 | 1,957,948 |
| 2065 | -0.818 | 1,880,092 |
| 2070 | -0.843 | 1,803,798 |
| 2075 | -0.887 | 1,727,573 |
| 2080 | -0.952 | 1,650,107 |
| 2085 | -1.022 | 1,570,750 |
| 2090 | -1.095 | 1,489,755 |
| 2095 | -1.124 | 1,409,006 |
| 2100 | -1.105 | 1,332,415 |
Data from US Census International Database