Mexico Rate of Natural Increase

Mexico’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its birth rate and death rate—has been gradually declining over recent decades, reflecting broader demographic transitions. As of the early 2020s, Mexico’s RNI is estimated to be around 1.1% per year, indicating moderate population growth driven primarily by births outpacing deaths, though at a slower pace than in previous decades. In comparison, Mexico’s northern neighbor, the United States, has a significantly lower RNI, hovering near 0.3%, due to lower birth rates and an aging population. To the south, Guatemala exhibits a higher RNI, around 1.8%, reflecting higher fertility rates and a younger population structure. Belize also has a relatively high RNI, though slightly less than Guatemala’s, while other Central American neighbors like Honduras and El Salvador have rates closer to Mexico’s but are also experiencing gradual declines. Overall, Mexico’s RNI is intermediate in the region, lower than its southern neighbors but higher than the United States, illustrating its position in the demographic transition from high to low population growth.

Data from US Census International Database