Lebanon’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—has declined significantly over recent decades and currently stands at a low level compared to many of its neighbors. As of recent estimates, Lebanon’s RNI is close to zero or even slightly negative, reflecting both a low birth rate (around 12 births per 1,000 population) and a relatively moderate death rate (about 7 deaths per 1,000 population). In contrast, neighboring countries such as Syria and Jordan maintain higher RNIs, with birth rates exceeding 20 per 1,000 and positive population growth. Meanwhile, Israel also has a higher RNI than Lebanon, driven by a higher fertility rate. Lebanon’s low RNI is influenced by factors such as economic instability, emigration, and delayed family formation, setting it apart from the generally higher natural population growth rates found in the broader Middle East region.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.719 | 2,383,029 |
| 1975 | 2.481 | 2,692,031 |
| 1980 | 2.311 | 2,901,188 |
| 1985 | 2.061 | 3,176,885 |
| 1990 | 1.823 | 3,451,187 |
| 1995 | 1.468 | 3,672,123 |
| 2000 | 1.185 | 3,834,455 |
| 2005 | 1.112 | 4,138,032 |
| 2010 | 1.048 | 4,489,300 |
| 2015 | 0.963 | 6,179,654 |
| 2020 | 0.818 | 5,463,514 |
| 2024 | 0.703 | 5,364,482 |
| 2025 | 0.677 | 5,396,599 |
| 2026 | 0.651 | 5,427,540 |
| 2030 | 0.553 | 5,539,588 |
| 2035 | 0.428 | 5,652,938 |
| 2040 | 0.274 | 5,729,450 |
| 2045 | 0.109 | 5,760,316 |
| 2050 | -0.039 | 5,744,987 |
| 2055 | -0.166 | 5,690,466 |
| 2060 | -0.294 | 5,600,620 |
| 2065 | -0.419 | 5,476,832 |
| 2070 | -0.524 | 5,324,497 |
| 2075 | -0.597 | 5,152,499 |
| 2080 | -0.632 | 4,971,708 |
| 2085 | -0.638 | 4,791,984 |
| 2090 | -0.631 | 4,618,486 |
| 2095 | -0.633 | 4,450,859 |
| 2100 | -0.649 | 4,286,403 |
Data from US Census International Database