Guinea-Bissau’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth and death rates—remains high, reflecting a youthful population and persistent high fertility. As of 2023, Guinea-Bissau’s RNI is estimated at around 2.4% per year, driven by a birth rate of approximately 33 births per 1,000 people and a death rate of about 9 per 1,000. When compared to its neighbors, Guinea-Bissau’s RNI is somewhat lower than that of Guinea (about 2.7%) and Senegal (about 2.6%), but higher than The Gambia (around 2.2%). These differences are influenced by variations in fertility rates, child mortality, and public health conditions. While all these West African countries share youthful demographic profiles and high fertility, Guinea-Bissau’s slightly lower RNI may reflect its higher mortality rates and slower progress in healthcare improvements compared to some of its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 2.272 | 788,956 |
| 1985 | 2.337 | 885,606 |
| 1990 | 2.42 | 993,559 |
| 1995 | 2.555 | 1,105,761 |
| 2000 | 2.702 | 1,207,652 |
| 2005 | 2.847 | 1,347,712 |
| 2010 | 2.817 | 1,516,054 |
| 2015 | 2.831 | 1,703,262 |
| 2020 | 2.896 | 1,927,022 |
| 2024 | 2.889 | 2,132,325 |
| 2025 | 2.883 | 2,187,293 |
| 2026 | 2.875 | 2,243,720 |
| 2030 | 2.832 | 2,484,003 |
| 2035 | 2.756 | 2,817,191 |
| 2040 | 2.666 | 3,186,964 |
| 2045 | 2.568 | 3,593,345 |
| 2050 | 2.468 | 4,036,411 |
| 2055 | 2.322 | 4,510,845 |
| 2060 | 2.171 | 5,008,087 |
| 2065 | 2.018 | 5,522,226 |
| 2070 | 1.86 | 6,045,875 |
| 2075 | 1.695 | 6,569,553 |
| 2080 | 1.522 | 7,081,685 |
| 2085 | 1.339 | 7,568,798 |
| 2090 | 1.147 | 8,016,445 |
| 2095 | 0.95 | 8,410,466 |
| 2100 | 0.747 | 8,737,637 |
Data from US Census International Database